Tensions Mount as Deadline Nears for Niger Military Junta: Ecowas Faces Crucial Decisions


As the seven-day ultimatum given by West African leaders to the military junta in Niger draws to a close, both sides are confronted with crucial decisions that could shape the country’s future. The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas), led by President Bola Tinubu of Nigeria, had set the deadline for the reinstatement of President Mohamed Bazoum, warning of possible military intervention if constitutional order is not restored.

In response to the coup, Ecowas has already imposed sanctions on the coup leaders and cut off electricity supplies from Nigeria, along with closing borders, leading to disruptions in trade and access to ports for the landlocked nation. As the deadline approaches, here are the potential scenarios that could unfold:

One option for Ecowas leaders is to extend the deadline, which some may perceive as a climbdown. However, they could justify it by citing progress in diplomatic efforts and the need to allow more time for resolution. Nevertheless, current mediation efforts have yielded limited results, with a recent delegation’s visit to Niger yielding little tangible outcome.

Meanwhile, the military junta has escalated tensions by severing diplomatic ties with Nigeria, Togo, the US, and France. It also announced the cancellation of military agreements with France, further complicating the situation. President Bazoum, held by the military, has sought international support, branding himself a “hostage” in an article for the Washington Post. The US has responded by pausing some aid to Niger’s government, except for humanitarian and food assistance.

To defuse tensions and find common ground, the junta and Ecowas could agree on a timetable for a return to democratic rule. Releasing President Bazoum and other political detainees may be part of the negotiation process, aiming to keep the talks ongoing and buy more time for a peaceful resolution. This demand aligns with the condemnation of the coup by various African and international actors.

Ecowas has previously approved democratic transitions in neighbouring countries like Mali and Burkina Faso, which also experienced military takeovers in recent years. However, these transitions faced challenges, with election deadlines often postponed, raising uncertainties about restoring civilian rule. The case of Sudan, which witnessed a bitter conflict between rival military leaders despite attempts at civilian-military governance, is an exemplary example.

While Ecowas did not explicitly state an intention to use force if President Bazoum is not reinstated, it remains an option. Nigerian officials have referred to it as a “last resort,” President Tinubu mentioned the possibility of military intervention to enforce compliance if the junta remains recalcitrant.

Ecowas has previously employed military force to restore constitutional order, as seen in The Gambia in 2017 when President Yahya Jammeh refused to step down after losing an election. However, the situation in Niger poses significant challenges. Geographically the largest country in West Africa, Niger’s size makes any potential military intervention more complex than previous cases like The Gambia, a small territory.

Additionally, Nigeria, the regional power leading efforts to restore President Bazoum, faces security challenges domestically. Committing a significant portion of its army to Niger would be risky. Furthermore, Mali and Burkina Faso have warned that military intervention in Niger would be considered a “declaration of war,” and they would defend their fellow coup leaders. This raises concerns about the potential for a full-scale regional war.

International actors like Algeria, China, and Russia have urged restraint and continued dialogue to ease tensions. Despite this, Ecowas defence chiefs have developed a detailed plan for military intervention, which regional leaders will consider. Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Senegal, and Benin have expressed willingness to send troops if Ecowas decides on intervention.

In conclusion, the approaching deadline for Niger’s military junta to reinstate President Bazoum presents a critical juncture for the country’s future. A peaceful resolution remains the preferred outcome, but Ecowas is determined to demonstrate its resolve in preventing further coups in the region. As tensions escalate, the decisions made in the coming days will have far-reaching consequences not only for Niger but also for regional stability and cooperation.

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